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Bulletin N°135

 3 septembre 2007 - September 3, 2007

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PAUVRETE - POVERTY

. Approches de la pauvreté en Ile-de-France
, Insee Ile-de-France, Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Dossier thématique, janvier, (2007).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. Concentrated poverty : Dynamics of change, G. T. Kingsley and K. L. S. Pettit, The Urban Institute, Washington, Neighborhood change in urban America, n° 5, August, 16 p., (2007).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Etats-Unis / United States

. La croissance pro-pauvres au Mali, I. Günther, M-A. Marouani et M. Raffinot, Agence française de Développement, Paris, Notes et documents, n° 32, 144 p., (2007).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Mali

. The dynamics and persistence of poverty : evidence from Italy, F. Devicienti and V. Gualtieri, Laboratorio R. Revelli, Moncalieri, Working paper, n° 63, August, 47 p., (2007).

Résumé – Summary
: This article studies the dynamics and persistence of poverty in Italy during the nineties, using the ECHP, 1994-2001. Various definitions of poverty are analyzed in parallel, income poverty, subjective poverty and a multidimensional index of life-style deprivation. For each poverty definition, the hazard rates of leaving poverty and re-entering into it are estimated and combined to compute a measure of poverty persistence that takes account of individuals’ repeated spells in poverty. The estimates provide a picture of high poverty turnover for the majority of the Italian population, which is true for any of the alternative definitions of poverty considered. Thus movements in and out of poverty cannot be simply related to spurious transitions due to measurement errors in household income. Multivariate exit and re-entry rate regressions are then estimated jointly to allow for correlated unobserved heterogeneity. The results highlight the role of demographic characteristics, the insufficiencies of the existing social security system and, above all, the weaknesses of the Italian labor market in generating persistent poverty for certain subgroups of the population.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Italie / Italy

. Income, poverty and health insurance coverage in the United States : 2006,
C. DeNavas, B. D. Proctor and J. Smith, Census Bureau, Washington, August, 78 p., (2007).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Etats-Unis / United States


. Welfare reforms and child well-being in the US and UK, J. Waldfogel, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, London, CASE/126, July, 31 p., (2007).

Résumé – Summary
: This paper examines the effects of recent welfare reforms in the US and UK on the well-being of children in low-income families, looking specifically at the effects on poverty, family expenditures, and child health and development. The paper finds some commonalities but also some notable differences. Common to both countries is a sizable reduction in child poverty, although the reduction in child poverty in the US has been less, and some families appear to have been left behind. Expenditure data also point to divergence across the two countries. In the UK, low-income families affected by the reforms are spending more money on items related to children and are more likely to own a car and a phone, while in the US, families affected by welfare reforms are primarily spending more money on items related to employment but not items for children. Finally, a common finding across countries is a relative dearth of more direct evidence on the well-being of children, and specifically how the reforms have affected child health and development. Identifying such effects remains an important topic for further research.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Royaume-Uni, Etats-Unis / United Kingdom, United States


EMPLOI - EMPLOYMENT

. Chômage : débattre de la mesure
, M. Lemoine, OFCE, Paris, Lettre de l'OFCE, n° 286, juin, 4 p., (2007).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. The effects of in-work benefit reform in Britain on couples : Theory and evidence, M. Francesconi, H. Rainer and W. van der Kauaw, Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn, IZA discussion paper, n° 2280, August, 75 p., (2007).

Résumé – Summary
: This paper examines the effects of the Working Families’ Tax Credit (WFTC) on couples in Britain. We develop a simple model of household decisions which explicitly accounts for the role played by the tax and benefit system. Its main implications are then tested using panel data from the British Household Panel Survey collected between 1991 and 2002. Overall, the financial incentives of the reform had negligible effects on a wide range of married mothers’ decisions, such as eligible (working at least 16 hours per week) and full-time employment (working at least 30 hours per week), employment transitions, childcare use, and divorce rates. Women’s responses, however, were highly heterogeneous, depending on their partners’ labour supply and earnings. Mothers married to low-income men showed larger responses in employment, especially if they had younger children. They were more likely to remain in the labour force and had higher rates at which they entered it. While more likely to receive the tax credit, they also experienced a greater risk of divorce. We find virtually no effect for women with higher-income husbands. Likewise, there are no statistically significant responses among married men.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Royaume-Uni / United Kingdom


. L’insertion par l’activité économique en 2005
, M. Avenel et J. Pujol, Dares, Paris, Premières informations, n° 32.2, août, 10 p., (2007).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. Le maintien dans l'emploi : faire face aux nouveaux défis,
A. Jabès et alii, AGEFIPH, Bagneux, Tendances, n° 10, juin, 2 p., (2007).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. Rapport fait au nom de la commission des finances, du contrôle budgétaire et des comptes économiques de la nation sur le projet de loi, adopté par l’Assemblée nationale, après déclaration d’urgence, en faveur du travail, de l’emploi et du pouvoir d’achat, P. Marini, Sénat, Paris, Rapport, n° 404, 358 p., (2007).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

REVENU - INCOME

. Assessing the importance of male and female part-time work for the gender earnings gap in Britain, K. Mumford and P. N. Smith, Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn, IZA discussion paper, n° 2281, August, 49 p., (2007). 

Résumé – Summary :
This study examines the role of individual characteristics, occupation, industry, region, and workplace characteristics in accounting for differences in hourly earnings between men and women in full and part-time jobs in Britain. A four-way gender-working time split (male full-timers, male part-timers, female full-timers and female part-timers) is considered, and allowance is explicitly made for the possibility of both workplace and occupational segregation across each group. Individual and workplace characteristics are shown to explain much of the earnings gaps examined. Within gender groups, the striking difference between full and part-time employees is that full-timers work in higher paying occupations than do part-timers. Also, occupational segregation makes a significant contribution to the earnings gap between male and female part-time employees but not for full-time workers. A further new result is that female workplace segregation contributes significantly to the full/part time earnings gap of both males and females. Part-time employees work in more feminised workplaces and their earnings are lower. By contrast, occupational segregation has little impact on the full-time/part-time earnings gap of either males or females. There remains, moreover, a substantial residual gender effect between male and female employees.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Royaume-Uni / United Kingdom


.
The evolution of inequality in productivity and wages : Panel data evidence, G. Faggio, K. G. Salvanes and J. Van Reenen, Centre for Economic Performance, London, CEP discussion paper, n° 0821, August, 66 p., (2007).


Résumé – Summary :
This paper presents new empirical evidence on the cyclical behavior of US unemployment that poses a challenge to standard search and matching models. The correlation between cyclical unemployment and the cyclical component of labor productivity switched sign at the beginning of the Great Moderation in the mid 80s: from negative it became positive, while standard search models imply a negative correlation. I argue that the inconsistency arises because search models do not allow output to be demand determined in the short run. I present a search model with nominal rigidities that can rationalize the empirical findings, and I document two new facts about the Great Moderation that can account for the large and swift increase in the unemployment-productivity correlation in the mid-80s
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Royaume-Uni / United Kingdom


AUTRES DONNEES SOCIALES - OTHER SOCIAL ISSUES

.
Bilan de la loi du 11 février 2005 et de la mise en place des Maisons Départementales des Personnes Handicapées, P. Gohet, La Documentation française, Paris, 95 p., (2007).

Résumé - Summary :
Le présent rapport fait le point sur la mise en oeuvre de la loi du 11 février 2005 pour l'égalité des droits et des chances, la participation et la citoyenneté des personnes handicapées : éducation et scolarisation, accueil et aide des étudiants handicapés, droit opposable à la scolarisation, insertion professionnelle et emploi, accessibilité des lieux publics... Il revient par ailleurs sur la mise en place et le fonctionnement des Maisons départementales des personnes handicapées (MDPH), créées sous forme de Groupement d'intérêt public.

Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. The Fed’s real reaction function : Monetary policy, inflation, unemployment, inequality – and presidential politics, J. K. Galbraith, O. Giovannoni and A. J. Russo, University of Texas Inequality Project, Austin, UTIP working paper, n° 42, July, 47 p., (2007).

Résumé – Summary :
Using a VAR model of the American economy from 1984 to 2003 we find that, contrary to official claims, the Federal Reserve does not target inflation or react to “inflation signals.” Rather, the Fed reacts to the very “real” signal sent by unemployment; in a way that suggests that a baseless fear of full employment is a principal force behind monetary policy. Tests of variations in the workings of a Taylor Rule, using dummy variable regressions, on data going back to 1969 suggest that after 1983 the Federal Reserve largely ceased reacting to inflation or high unemployment, but continued to react when unemployment fell “too low.” We further find that monetary policy (measured by the yield curve) has significant causal impact on pay inequality–a domain where the Federal Reserve refuses responsibility. Finally, we test whether Federal Reserve policy has exhibited a pattern of partisan bias in presidential election years, with results that suggest the presence of such bias, after controlling for the effects of inflation and unemployment.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Etats-Unis / United States


.
Money for nothing and checks for free : Recent development in US subprime mortgage markets, J. Kiff and P. Mills, International Monetary Fund, Washington, IMF working paper, n° 07, July, 19 p., (2007).


Résumé – Summary :
After a number of warning signs, the U.S. “subprime mortgage crisis” became a headline issue in February 2007. Notwithstanding the bankruptcy of numerous mortgage companies, historically high delinquencies and foreclosures, and a significant tightening in subprime lending standards, the impact thus far on core U.S. financial institutions has been limited. This paper reviews the history and structure of the subprime market. The results suggest that new origination and funding technology appear to have made the financial system more stable at the expense of undermining the effectiveness of consumer protection regulation. Potential solutions to the management of this trade-off are then explored.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Etats-Unis / United States

. NABE panel : Subprime and credit top short-term threats to U.S. economy,
National Association for Business Economics, Washington, Economic policy survey, August 27, 3 p., (2007).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Etats-Unis / United States


. Rescaling social welfare policies in Denmark : national report,
C. Thorgaard and H. Vinther, The Danish National Centre for Social Research, Copenhagen, Working paper, n° 10, August, 58 p., (2007).

Résumé – Summary :
The report is a contribution to the research project ”Rescaling of Social Welfare Policies: a comparative study on the path towards multilevel governance in Europe”, which is coordinated by the European Centre for Social Welfare Policy and Research. The report is a background paper for the project. It provides background information for understanding the rescaling process in Denmark. The report has a three-fold purpose. First, it describes the contextual conditions within which the rescaling process occurs. Second, it describes the institutional settings in terms of territorial responsibilities and competences, identifying the relevant actors involved in policy design, management and delivery. Third, it describes the rescaling process that has occurred in Denmark since the 1980s; it focuses on four policy areas: social assistance and local politics against poverty, employment policy, elder care and integration policy.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Danemark / Denmark

. Towards European skill needs forecasting,
A. Zukersteinova and O. Strietska-Ilina (Eds), Cedefop, Thessaloniki, 182 p., (2007).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Europe