PAUVRETE - POVERTY
.
Putting poverty in political context : A multi-level
analysis of working-aged poverty across 18 affluent democracies,
D. Brady, A. Fullerton and J. Moren Cross,
Luxembourg Income Study,
Luxembourg, Working paper, n° 487, July, 41 p., (2008).
Résumé - Summary
: Our study analyzes how political context, embodied by
the welfare state and Leftist political actors, shapes individual poverty. Using
the Luxembourg Income Study, we conduct a multilevel analysis of working-aged
adult poverty across 18 affluent Western democracies. Our index of welfare
generosity has a negative effect on poverty net of individual characteristics
and structural context. For each standard deviation increase in welfare
generosity, the odds of poverty decline by a factor of 2.3. The odds of poverty
in the U.S. (the least generous welfare state) are greater by a factor of 16.6
than a person with identical characteristics in Denmark (the most generous
welfare state). Significant interaction effects suggest that welfare generosity
reduces the extent to which low education and the number of children increase
poverty. Also, welfare generosity reduces poverty among those with low education,
single mother households, and young households. We show that Leftist parties and
union density reduce the odds of poverty, however their effects channel through
the welfare state. Ultimately, poverty is shaped both by individual
characteristics and the political context in which that individual resides.
Zone géographique / Geographical
area : Données internationales / International data
.
Résurgence de la pauvreté dans la vieillesse ? Les débats
actuels sur les retraites en Allemagne,
M. Veil,
Ires, Noisy-le-Grand, Chronique internationale
de l'Ires, n° 113, juillet, 9 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Allemagne / Germany
EMPLOI - EMPLOYMENT
.
Annual review of working conditions in the EU 2007-2008,
M.
Giaccone and G. Bucalossi,
European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions,
Dublin, 87 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical
area : Europe
.
Passé professionnel et sécurité des trajectoires. Une
exploitation de l'enquête FQP de 2003,
M. Bruyère et L. Lizé,
Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Paris, CES
working papers, n° 2008.44, 19 p., (2008).
Résumé :
Ce travail propose d’analyser la sécurité des parcours professionnels selon les
trois critères définis par le CERC (2005) : la stabilité de l’emploi (rester
dans le même emploi), la sécurité de l’emploi (reprise d’emploi rapide après une
mobilité externe) et la sécurité des revenus (maintenir ou augmenter ses
revenus). Nous cherchons à vérifier si les caractéristiques de l’emploi occupé
sont des facteurs plus importants que ne le sont les variables individuelles
classiques pour expliquer ces trois critères à partir de l’enquête Formation et
Qualification Professionnelle de l’INSEE (FQP 2003). Nos résultats font
ressortir que les variables d’emploi sont les plus importantes pour expliquer la
stabilité de l’emploi et la sécurité des revenus. En revanche, les variables
individuelles comme l’âge et le diplôme deviennent au moins aussi déterminantes
que les caractéristiques du dernier emploi occupé pour expliquer la reprise
rapide d’un emploi après une mobilité externe. Ces résultats éclairent le débat
sur la « flexicurité » dont sa réussite serait fondée sur une forte implication
individuelle des salariés dans la construction de leurs parcours professionnels.
Summary :
This paper offers an analysis of the career security according to three criteria
defined by the CERC (2005): the job stability (length of job tenure), the job
security (short duration of unemployment after an external mobility), and the
income security (maintaining or increasing incomes). We try to verify if job
characteristics are more important factors than classical individual variables
to explain these three criteria. The 2003 FQP Survey contains rich information
to describe jobs. It offers usual information as the sector or the size of the
company, and also newer information about concrete conditions of job as the use
of information technology, the work rate, contact with the public, type of
hierarchical control, position in the firm. We process all these data to analyze
the link between characteristics of job, and career security. On the one hand,
variables connected to the job are the most important to explain employment
stability and income security. On the other hand, individual’s variables as age
and diploma become at least as much determining as the characteristics of the
last job to explain job security when a worker left his job. This result throws
light on the debate on the flexicurity based on a strong individual involvement
of employees in their career curriculum.
Zone géographique / Geographical
area : France
.
Skill needs in Europe : Focus on 2020,
Cedefop, Thessaloniki, July, 29 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Europe
REVENU - INCOME
.
Do minimum wages really reduce teen employment ?
Accounting for heterogeneity and selectivity in State panel data,
S. Allegretto, A. Dube et
M. Reich,
Institute for Research on Labor and Employment,
Berkeley, Paper, n° 66-08, June, 37 p., (2008).
Résumé - Summary
: Traditional estimates of minimum wage effects on employment include controls
for state unemployment rates and state and year fixed-effects. Using Current
Population Survey data, we show that such estimates often are biased and that
the estimates vary ith the source of identifying variation. Without sufficient
controls for heterogeneous employment patterns that would occur without minimum
wage policies, traditional estimates vary substantially both in sign and
magnitude depending on time period and hence with the selectivity of states with
minimum wage hikes. Estimates without sufficient controls also vary across
demographic groups in a counterintuitive manner that suggests misspecification
problems. To account for heterogeneous employment patterns and selectivity among
states with minimum wages, we include controls for long-term growth differences
among states by using a state-specific linear trend, and controls for
heterogeneous responses to economic shocks by including Census division-specific
time effects. In the 1990 to 2006 period, including these controls reduces the
magnitude of the estimated employment elasticity from -0.168 (significant at the
1 percent level) to -0.024 (not significant). Although the division and state
trend controls do not constitute a panacea, they do provide important tools to
mitigate the bias that results from unobserved spatial heterogeneities in
employment patterns that are correlated with the minimum wage. Since estimates
in most previous national-level studies insufficiently address this issue,
economists’ estimates of minimum wage effects must be revised accordingly.
Zone géographique / Geographical
area : Etats-Unis / United States
.
Minimum wages and earnings inequality in urban Mexico :
revisiting the evidence,
M. Bosch and M. Manacorda,
Centre for Economic Performance, London, CEP
discussion paper, n° 880, July, 62 p., (2008).
Résumé - Summary
: This paper explores the contribution of the minimum wage to the well
documented rise in earnings inequality in Mexico between the late 1980 and the
late 1990s. In contrast to the view that sees minimum wages as an ineffective
redistributive tool in developing countries, we find that the deterioration in
the real bite of the minimum wage is responsible for the entire rise in
inequality at the bottom of the distribution. Our result challenges the
widespread perception that trade induced shocks are the single most important
factor behind the recent rise in earnings inequality in several less developed
economies.
Zone géographique / Geographical
area : Mexique / Mexico
.
New estimates of the effects of minimum wages in the U.S. retail trade sector,
T. T. Addison, M. L. Blackburn and C. D. Cotti,
Institute
for the Study of Labor, Bonn, IZA discussion paper, n° 3597, July, 37
p., (2008).
Résumé - Summary
: This paper examines the impact of minimum wages on earnings and employment in
selected branches of the retail-trade sector, 1990-2005, using county-level data
on employment and a panel regression framework that allows for county-specific
trends in sectoral outcomes. We focus on particular subsectors within retail
trade that are identified as particularly low-wage. We find little evidence of
disemployment effects once we allow for geographic-specific trends. Rather, in
many sectors the evidence suggests modest (but robust) positive employment
effects. One explanation we consider for these ‘perverse’ effects is that
minimum wages may have significant influences on product demand shifts.
Zone géographique / Geographical
area : Etats-Unis / United States
.
Salaire minimum et bas revenus : Comment concilier justice
sociale et efficacité économique ?,
P. Cahuc, G. Cette et A.
Zylberberg,
Conseil d'Analyse économique,
Paris, Rapport, juillet, 94 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical
area : France
AUTRES DONNEES SOCIALES - OTHER SOCIAL ISSUES
.
German consumption : Is there hope for a revival ?,
G. Epppendorfer and M. H Stierle,
Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs,
Brussels, ECFIN country focus, n°6, June, 6 p., (2008).
Résumé - Summary
: In Germany private consumption virtually stagnated for nearly a decade and
clearly lagged behind GDP growth. This Country Focus uses the estimation of a
consumption function to show that the drop in employment is the most important
factor behind the reluctance to consume in the first half of this decade.
However, given the significant labour market improvement since 2005, employment
cannot explain the persistent sluggishness of consumer expenditure since then.
We found that additional factors such as various components of disposable income,
perceived inflation and one-off events like the VAT increase and the expiry of
the more generous depreciation rules have also held back private consumption.
Since these one-offs will no longer weigh on private consumption, employment
continues to increase and inflation will hopefully abate, there are reasons for
optimism for a (moderate) revival of private consumption in Germany.
Zone géographique / Geographical
area : Allemagne / Germany
.
No one written off : reforming welfare to reward
responsibility,
Department for Work and Pensions, London, Public consultation, July,
118 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical
area : Royaume-Uni / United Kingdom
.
Objectif 50% de diplômés de l'enseignement supérieur
versus déclassement des jeunes,
P. Lemistre,
Céreq, Marseille, Net-doc, n° 39, juin, 40 p.,
(2008).
Résumé :
Ce document tente une synthèse des enjeux et débat liés à l’expansion scolaire
en France. Il examine les limites des projections à 2015 concernant l’objectif
50 % de diplômés, ceci en regard d’un taux déclassement des jeunes dont une
réévaluation, à la baisse, est proposée après une discussion relative aux
mesures disponibles. Le déclassement est le versant négatif de l’expansion
scolaire à court terme. Les effets à long terme sont examinés comme des effets
de composition négatifs (dévalorisation des diplômes) et positifs (croissance
endogène, structuration des systèmes productifs, effets macro économiques
moyens), les seconds semblant l’emporter sur les premiers. Cette perspective est
défendue sur le plan théorique et en la resituant dans le débat actuel entre une
analyse en terme « d’inflation scolaire » et d’économie de l’innovation.
Summary :
This document attempts a synthesis of issues and debate related to the
educational expansion in France. It examines the limits of projections to 2015
on goals 50 % of graduates, this against over education. Over education is the
negative side of educational expansion in the short term. The long-term effects
are considered as negative composition effect (devaluation of diplomas) and
positive (endogenous growth, structuring productive systems, macro economic
effects), the latter seem to outweigh the first. This perspective is supported
on a theoretical level and placing it in the current debate between an analysis
term inflation school and innovation economy.
Zone géographique / Geographical
area : France
.
Surcote : les raisons d'un échec relatif,
C. Albert, N. Grave et J-B. Oliveau,
Cnav,
Paris, Retraite et société, n° 54, juin, 31 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical
area : France