bulletin du cerc n° 163 du 6 octobre 2008

PAUVRETE - POVERTY

. Grandir en Amérique du Nord : le bien-être économique des enfants au Canada, aux Etats-Unis et au Mexique, Conseil Canadien de Développement Social, Ottawa, 63 p., (2008).
English version : "Growing up in North America : The economic well-being of children in Canada, the United States and Mexico"
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Canada, Etats-Unis, Mexique / Canada, United States, Mexico

. Human capital investment and long-term poverty reduction in rural Mexico, P. Winters and V. Chiodi, Paris-Jourdan Sciences économiques, Paris, Working paper, n° 2008-51, 35 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Mexique / Mexico

. On analysing the world distribution of income, A. B. Atkinson and A. Brandolini, Ecineq, Palma de Mallorca, Ecineq working paper, n° 2008-97, October, 46 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : This paper argues that consideration of world inequality should cause us to reexamine the key concepts underlying the welfare approach to the measurement of income inequality and the inter-relation between the measurement of inequality and the measurement of poverty. There are three reasons why we feel that a reexamination is necessary: (i) the extent of global income differences means that we cannot simply carry over the methods used at a national level; we need a more flexible measure; (ii) we have to reconcile measures of world inequality and world poverty; and (iii) we need to explore more fully the different ways in which measures may be relative or absolute. This leads us to propose a new measure, which (a) combines poverty and inequality, including provision for those who are concerned only with poverty, (b) incorporates different approaches to the measurement of inequality; and (c) allows the cost of inequality to be expressed in different ways. Applied to the world distribution for the period 1820-1992, the new measure provides different perspectives on the evolution of global inequality.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Données internationales / International data

. What do the recently-released US poverty numbers tell us ?, R. M. Blank, The Brookings Institution, Washington, September, 9 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Etats-Unis / United States

EMPLOI - EMPLOYMENT

. Conciliare lavoro e famiglia. Una sfida quotidiana, Istat, Roma, Argomenti, n° 33, 267 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Italie / Italy

Conjoncture - conjuncture

. The credit crunch of 2007-2008 : A discussion of the background, market reactions and policy responses, P. Mizen, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Saint Louis, Review, September-October, 36 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : This paper discusses the events surrounding the 2007-08 credit crunch. It highlights the period of exceptional macrostability, the global savings glut, and financial innovation in mortgage-backed securities as the precursors to the crisis. The credit crunch itself occurred when house prices fell and subprime mortgage defaults increased. These events caused investors to reappraise the risks of high-yielding securities, bank failures, and sharp increases in the spreads on funds in interbank markets. The paper evaluates the actions of the authorities that provided liquidity to the markets and failing banks and indicates areas where improvements could be made. Similarly, it examines the regulation and supervision during this time and argues the need for changes to avoid future crises
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Etats-Unis / United States

. The housing meltdown : Why did it happen in the United States ?, L. Ellis, Bank for International Settlements, Basel, BIS working papers, n° 259, September, 36 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : The crisis enveloping global nancial markets since August 2007 was triggered by actual and prospective credit losses on US mortgages. Was the United States just unlucky to have been the rst to experience a housing crisis? Or was it inherently more susceptible to one? I examine the limited international evidence available, to ask how the boom-bust cycle in the US housing market differed from elsewhere and what the underlying institutional drivers of these differences were. Compared with other countries, the United States seems to have: built up a larger overhang of excess housing supply; experienced a greater easing in mortgage lending standards; and ended up with a household sector more vulnerable to falling housing prices. Some of these outcomes seem to have been driven by tax, legal and regulatory systems that encouraged households to increase their leverage and permitted lenders to enable that development. Given the institutional background, it may have been that the US housing boom was always more likely to end badly than the booms elsewhere.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Etats-Unis / United States

. How economic news moves markets, L. Bartolini, L. Goldberg and A. Sacarny, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, Current issues in economic and finance, n° 6, August, 7 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : Exploring how the release of new economic data affects asset prices in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, the authors find that only a few announcements—the nonfarm payroll numbers, the GDP advance release, and a private sector manufacturing report—generate price responses that are economically significant and measurably persistent. Bond yields show the strongest response and stock prices the weakest. The authors’ analysis of the direction of these effects suggests that news of stronger-than-expected growth and inflation generally prompts a rise in bond yields and the exchange value of the dollar.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Etats-Unis / United States

. Ireland's housing market : bubble trouble, J. Malzubris, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Brussels, Ecfin country focus, n° 9, September, 7 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : Between 1992 and 2006, new house prices rose by a cumulative 300% in real terms and 340% in nominal terms. At the same time, the stock of housing grew by 150%. Much of the increase in real house prices may be explained by particularly strong housing demand fuelled by a relatively young and growing population, rapid growth in real disposable income, low (and at times negative) real interest rates, favourable tax treatment of residential property and house purchase for investment purposes. Estimates of the degree of overvaluation of real new house prices around the peak in 2006 vary between 20% and 40%. Real house prices have already fallen by 18% since 2006. Given the weight of the residential construction sector in output (10%) and employment (13%), the correction in this sector is acting as a drag on overall economic growth as well as on public finances, at a time when the external sector is being hit by deteriorating competitiveness and a slowdown in two major trading partners (US and UK). It remains to be seen whether past structural reforms can help bring about a rapid return to the medium term growth or whether the recovery will be more drawn out, similar to the experience of many industrialised countries that have undergone housing market busts in the past 30 years.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Irlande / Ireland

. Quel effet sur l'économie et sur les banques de la crise de l'immobilier résidentiel ?, P. Artus, Natixis, Paris, Flash économie, n° 430, octobre, 8 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Espagne, France, Etats-Unis, Royaume-Uni / Spain, France, United States, United Kingdom

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