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Bulletin N°164

20 octobre 2008 - October 20, 2008

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PAUVRETE - POVERTY

. The Ined research on homelessness, 1993-2008, volume 1
Edited by M. Marpsat, Ined, Paris, Documents de travail, n° 156, 227 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France, Etats-Unis / France, United States

. Mobility in the United States in comparative perspective,
M. Jäntti, Institute for Research on Poverty, Madison, A version of this paper was presented at the IRP conference Changing Poverty,” May 29–30, Discussion paper, n° 1349-08, September, 37 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : The United States has a much more unequal distribution of income than most developed nations. In fact, although it has one of the highest standards of living on average, as measured by its gross domestic product per capita, the more unequal income distribution translates into comparatively high rates of both relative poverty (50 percent of median disposable income) and absolute poverty (the official US poverty thresholds). This paper examines the dynamics of poverty in the United States in light of evidence from other developed nations. The author begins by examining poverty mobility in the United States based on monthly incomes. The proportion of those who have below-poverty-level income in two or more months is much greater than poverty based on annual income, so the experience of poverty is in some sense much more common than annual figures suggest. Similar background factors—belonging to a racial minority or living in a female-headed household—are associated with higher short-term, annual, and long-term poverty.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Etats-Unis, Comparaisons internationales / United States, International comparisons

. Poorest households face highest average inflation rates,
The Institute for Fiscal Studies, London, October, 4 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Royaume-Uni / United Kingdom

. Qu'entendons-nous par "féminisation de la pauvreté" ?,
M. Medeiros et J. Costa, Centre international pour l'action en faveur des pauvres, International Poverty Centre, Brasilia, One pager, n° 58, octobre, 2 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : none


 . Who are America's poor children ? The official story,
S. Fass and N. K. Cauthen, National Center for Children in Poverty, New York, October, 4 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Etats-Unis / United States

EMPLOI - EMPLOYMENT

. Evaluation of an in-work tax credit reform in Sweden : effects on labour supply and welfare participation of single mothers
R. Aaberge and L. Flood, Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn, IZA discussion paper, n° 3736, September, 43 p., (2008).


Résumé - Summary : The purpose of this paper is to evaluate a recent Swedish in-work tax credit reform where we pay particular attention to labor market exclusion; i.e. individuals in as well as outside the labor force are included in the analysis. To highlight the importance of the joint effects from the tax and the benefit systems it appears particular relevant to analyze the labor supply behavior of single mothers. To this end, we estimate a structural microeconometric model of labor supply and welfare participation. The model accounts for heterogeneity in consumptionleisure preferences as well as for constraints in job opportunities. The results of the evaluation show that the reform generates welfare-gains for virtually every single mother, and moreover benefits low-income households. Finally, due to increased labor supply and decline in welfare participation we find that this reform is almost self-financing.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Suède / Sweden

. Formation et enseignement professionnels en France : une brève description,
Cedefop, Thessaloniki, octobre, 106 p., (2008).
English version
"Vocational educational and training in France"
Deutsche Version "Berufsbildung in Frankreich : Kurzbeschreibung"
 
. Inequalities, employment and income convergence in Europe : Evidence from regional data,
J. K. Galbraith and J. E. Garcilazo, University of Texas Inequality Project, Austin, UTIP working paper, n° 52, September, 23 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : This paper explores the relationship between pay inequality and unemployment rates for 187 European Regions from 1984-2003. We measure inequality within the regions -- between 16 industrial sectors in each region -- and also between the regions: thus the inequality measures are nested. Our model of unemployment employs a panel structure that permits us to separate regional, national and continental influences on European unemployment. This allows us to test whether a tradeoff exists between cohesion and competitiveness. We find no evidence of this tradeoff; instead lower pay inequality is generally associated with a lower regional unemployment rate. We find strong country effects lowering unemployment (relative to the model) in relatively smaller countries such as Ireland, Austria, Portugal and the Netherlands; on the other hand unemployment is high, relative to the model, in Spain and Poland. Time effects reveal the effects of European macroenvironment on regional unemployment. We find an employment penalty associated with the Maastricht Treaty (1992) and its implementation of around four percentage points, lasting until 1998, when a general reduction in unemployment appears to coincide with the arrival of the Euro. Unfortunately, the pattern is again reversed in 2000, coinciding with the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Europe

. More and better jobs : Patterns of employment expansion in Europe,
J. Hurley, and E. Fernández-Macías, European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions, Dublin, ERM report, October, 102 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Europe

.
Le pilotage de l'orientation tout au long de la vie : le sens des réformes, I. Borras et alii, Céreq, Marseille, Notes emploi formation n° 29, juillet, 48 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. Regional labour market disparities are narrowing,
P. J. Martins Ferreira, Eurostat, Luxembourg, Statistics in focus, general and regional statistics, n° 84/2008, 8 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Europe

REVENU - INCOME

. Cyprus : immigration, wage indexation and the adjustment in EMU,
P. S Eliofotou, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Brussels, Ecfin country focus, n° 5, October, 7 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Cyprus / Chypre

. Sur le revenu de solidarité active
, P. Mongin, International Centre for Economic Research, Torino, Working paper, n° 18/2008, October, 37 p., (2008).

Résumé : La France devrait instaurer en 2009 un "revenu de solidarité active" (RSA) qui remplacerait plusieurs minima sociaux, allocations ou prestations, en se cumulant avec les revenus du travail suivant un barème dégressif qui évoque les projets d'impôt négatif ou d'allocation universelle. L'article tente de répondre synthétiquement aux interrogations multiples que soulève cette réforme considérable du système de solidarité national. Après en avoir résumé les antécédents théoriques et la genèse, il développe la triple motivation du RSA – rationalisatrice, incitative et redistributive – et conclut par des propositions concrètes sur ses modalités de réalisation.

Summary  :  In 2009, France is expected to create a new minimum income guarantee called "revenu de solidarité active" (RSA) in order to replace several existing programmes. It should benefit those in work according to a degressive schedule that reminds one of the negative income tax or universal basic income projects. The paper attempts to offer a compact answer to the many questions raised by this major change in the national welfare system. After summing up the theoretical and historical context, it elaborates on the three arguments for RSA – rationalization, incentives, and redistribution – and finally concludes by making concrete proposals on how to implement it.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. Where has all the income gone ? Middle American incomes rise substantially even while inequality increases,
T. J. Fitzgerald, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Minneapolis, The region, September, 14 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Etats-Unis / United States

AUTRES DONNEES SOCIALES - OTHER SOCIAL ISSUES

. La croissance du PIB : Une mesure à déchiffrer,
Sénat, Paris, Les documents de travail du Sénat, série : études économiques, octobre, 41 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. How do spouses allocate time : the effects of wages and income, H. G. Bloemen and E. G. F. Stancanelli, OFCE, Paris, Document de travail, n° 30, September, 48 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : This paper focuses on the time allocation of spouses and the impact of economic variables. We present a stylized model of the time allocation of spouses to illustrate the expected impact of wages and non-labour income. The empirical model simultaneously specifies three time-use choices -paid work, childcare, and housework- and wage and employment equations for each spouse, allowing for correlation across the errors of the ten equations. We exploit the rich information in the French time-use survey 1998-99 to estimate the model. The predictions of the theoretical model are mostly validated with the main exception of the standard hypothesis that performing housework does not bring utility. Parents’ market time responds positively to changes in own wage. The own-wage elasticity of housework is negative while childcare does not react to changes in own wage. Women’s non-market time is independent of their husband’s wage; but both housework and childcare of fathers react positively to an increase in their wife’s wage. Non labour income reduces paid work by parents and increases their non-market time. Higher-educated and older parents spend more time with their children. There are significant and positive correlations across the errors of the spousal equations.  

Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. Les retraites en 2006 : 4% des retraités en plus avec l'arrivée à 60 ans des premiers baby boomers,
A. Deloffre, Drees, Paris, Etudes et résultats, n° 662, octobre, 8 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France
 

Crise financière - Financial crisis

. Caught in the US subprime meltdown 2007/2008 : Germany loses its wallet but escapes major harm, S. Kooths and M. Rieger, DIW, Berlin, Discussion papers, n° 825, October, 32 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : The ongoing financial crisis so far cost the German financial sector 38 billion Euros due to losses on its mortgage-related subprime bank exposures. This paper looks for the impact of these losses on the real sector of the economy. First, the financial sector is looked at as part of the overall macro economy in order to identify the direct impact of the write-offs and devaluations of financial assets on value-added and employment in the financial industry. In the second part of the paper the financial sector’s role as enabler of real investment is analyzed. So far, there is no significant evidence that the credit creation capacity of the German banking system as a whole was negatively affected (as indicated by stable money multiplier and base equity ratio values). In particular, the flow of credit to non-financial businesses remains intact despite heavy turmoil within the financial sector. Also, the overall interest rate for corporate lending did hardly increase. Econometrically, a switching disequilibrium model and a market-clearing approached were setup to test for excess demand during the crisis and any general impact of the crisis on the credit market respectively. The statistical tests turned out to be little helpful for quantifying any major effect. We conclude that despite the substantial financial losses there is no major negative spill-over from the banking sector to the real economy in Germany.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Allemagne / Germany

. Crise financière : Qui sont les responsables ?,
P. Artus, Natixis, Paris, Flash économie, n° 458, octobre, 9 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Données internationales / International data

. De la crise des subprimes à la crise financière,
M. Fried, Lasaire, Les cahiers, n° 35, avril, 28 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Données internationales / International data

. Subprime facts : What (we think)  we know about the subprime crisis and what we don't,
C. L. Foote and alii, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston, Public policy, discussion paper, n° 08-02, 57 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : Using a variety of datasets, we document some basic facts about the current subprime crisis. Many of these facts are applicable to the crisis at a national level, while some illustrate problems relevant only to Massachusetts and New England. We conclude by discussing some outstanding questions about which the data, we believe, are not yet conclusive.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Etats-Unis / United States

. The subprime turmoil : What's old, what's new and what's next,
C. W. Calomiris, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, October, 113 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Etats-Unis / United States

. World of Work Report 2008 : Income inequalities in the age of financial globalization, Institute for Labour Studies, International Labour Office, Geneva, October, 178 p., (2008).
Résumé en français, 7 p.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Données internationales / International data