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Bulletin N°168

15 décembre 2008 - December 15, 2008

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PAUVRETE - POVERTY

. The dynamics of child poverty in Sweden,
M. J. Lindquist and G. Sjögren Lindquist, Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm, Working paper, n° 4, October, 41 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary :The purpose of this paper is to study (empirically) the dynamics of child poverty in Sweden, the quintessential welfare state. We find that 1 out of every 5 children is disposable income poor at least once during his or her childhood, while only 2 percent of all children are chronically poor. We also document a strong life-cycle profile for child poverty. Approximately 8.6 percent of all children are born into poverty. The average poverty rate then drops to about 7.5 percent among 1-  year old children. After which, it declines (monotonically) to about 3.8 percent among 17-year olds. Children in Sweden are largely protected (economically) from a number of quite serious events, such as parental unemployment, sickness and death. Family dissolution and long-term unemployment, however, do push children into poverty. But for most of these children, poverty is only temporary. Single mothers, for example, are overrepresented among the poor, but not among the chronically poor. Children with immigrant parents are strongly overrepresented among the chronically poor; as are children whose parents have unusually low educations. We argue that information about the dynamics of child poverty may help policy makers to construct more salient policies for fighting child poverty.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Suède / Sweden

. Gender inequality, endogenous cultural norms and economic development, V. Hiller, Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne Paris, Document de travail, n° 2008.75, 44 p., (2008).

Résumé : Cet article s’intéresse au rôle joué par les normes culturelles dans le phénomène de persistance des inégalités hommes-femmes. Les normes culturelles régissant le rôle respectif des hommes et des femmes sont supposées endogènes et peuvent générer l’émergence de trappes à inégalité et à pauvreté. En effet, les inégalités entre genres sont internalisées par les agents et conduisent à une vision inégalitaire du rôle que doit jouer chacun au sein de la société. A cause de ces croyances inégalitaires, les garçons reçoivent une éducation supérieur à celle reçue par les filles et l’inégalité initiale est renforcée. L’existence de trappes à inégalité entre hommes et femmes est mis en avant par la Banque Mondiale comme un des obstacle majeur au développement économique (WDR 2006). Cet article permet de mieux comprendre la persistance de ce type de trappe et les moyens d’en sortir.

Summary : This research focuses on the role played by cultural norms in the long run persistence of gender inequalities. Cultural norms about gender roles are considered to be endogenous and can generate gender inequality and low development traps. Indeed, when the gender gap is internalized, it leads to inegalitarian views about gender roles. Due to these inegalitarian beliefs, boys receive more education and the initial gender gap is reinforced. The existence of gender inequality traps is pointed out by the World Bank as a major obstacle for economic development (WDR 2006). The present article allows for a better understanding of the persistence of such traps and the means to escape.    
Zone géographique / Geographical area : none

. Low-income children in the United States : National and state trend data, 1997-2007, M. Chau and A. Douglas Hall, National Center for Children in Poverty, New York, November, 59 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Etats-Unis / United States

. Monitoring poverty and social exclusion 2008,
Joseph Rowntree Foundation, London, December, 116 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Royaume-Uni / United Kingdom

. Revenus de bien-être social, 2006 et 2007,
Conseil national du Bien-être social, Ottawa, Hiver, vol. 128, 157 p., (2008).
English version
"Welfare incomes, 2006 and 2007"
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Canada

. The working poor in Europe,
H. Lohmann, Dipartimento di Studi Sociali e Politici, Milano, Working paper esterni, n° 01/09, 17 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : This article regards the incidence of in-work poverty and how it is reduced by the payment of social transfers in 20 European countries. It combines a micro- and a macro-level perspective in two-level models. The basis for the analysis is micro-data from the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) 2005 and macro-data from sources such as the OECD and Eurostat. The broad comparative perspective allows for a separation of different institutional influences, namely the influence of the degree of decommodification, defamilization, and bargaining centralization. In contrast to previous studies on the working poor which have mainly described country differences in in-work poverty, this article focuses on the question of how such differences can be explained from a broader perspective of poverty research. In general, the results confirm the overall hypothesis that both welfare state measures and labour market institutions have an influence on in-work poverty. By analysing influences on pre-transfer poverty and poverty reduction separately, the author shows that such factors have varied effects on in-work poverty. While bargaining centralization proves to be relevant for the distribution of pretransfer incomes only, the set-up of the social security system, in particular, impacts the extent of poverty reduction.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Europe

EMPLOI - EMPLOYMENT

. Labor force participation by the elderly and employment of the young : The case of France
, M. Ben Salem and alii, Paris-Jourdan sciences économiques, Laboratoire d'Economie appliquée, Paris, Working paper, n° 2008-57, December, 39 p., (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. The political economy of two-tier reforms of employment protection in Europe, W. Ochel, CESifo, Munich, CESifo working paper, n° 2461, November, 35 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : Reforms of employment protection (EPL) in Europe eased the recourse to temporary forms of employment while not reducing the strictness of EPL of permanent jobs (with the exception of Spain). Since 1990, such two-tier reforms have been implemented in Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden. The paper seeks to show why two-tier reforms of EPL have taken place in some countries and have failed on other occasions. This is done by having a loser look at the history of national reform processes. In addition the paper seeks to determine whether two-tier reforms later led to EPL reforms for permanent jobs.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Europe

. Welfare and employment : A European dilemma ?,
W. Eichhorst and A. Hemerijck, Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn, IZA discussion paper, n° 3870, December, 36 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary :The majority of the Member States of the European Union have undertaken remarkably comprehensive welfare and labor market reforms in the years since the 1990s. Many of these reforms, however, have not followed the conventional retrenchment and deregulation recipes, but rather took a liking to social pacts, activation, active ageing/avoidance of early retirement, part-time work, lifelong learning, parental leave, gender mainstreaming, flexicurity (balancing flexibility with security), reconciling work and family life. At first sight, these reforms seem to have resulted in relatively robust employment growth, especially for women and more recently older workers. European economic integration has fundamentally recast the boundaries of national systems of employment regulation and social protection, both by constraining the autonomy for domestic policy options but also by opening opportunities for EU-led social and employment coordination and agenda setting.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Europe

REVENU - INCOME

. Fiscal effects of minimum wages : An analysis for Germany,
T. K Bauer and alii, RWI, Essen, Ruhr economic papers, n° 79, November, 32 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : Against the background of the current discussion on the introduction of statutory minimum wages in Germany, this paper analyzes the potential employment and fiscal effects of such a policy. Based on estimated labor demand elasticities obtained from a structural labor demand model, the empirical results imply that the introduction of minimum wages in Germany will be associated with significant employment losses that are concentrated among marginal and low- and semi-skilled full-time workers. Even though minimum wages will lead to increased public revenues from income taxes and social security benefits, they will result in a significant fiscal burden, due to increased expenditures for unemployment benefits and decreased revenues from corporate taxes.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Allemagne / Germany

. Institutional features of wage bargaining in 23 European countries, the US and Japan,
P. du Caju and alii, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Working paper, n° 974, December, 57 p., (2008)

Résumé - Summary : This paper presents information on wage bargaining institutions, collected using a standardised questionnaire. Our data provide information from 1995 and 2006, for four sectors of activity and the aggregate economy, considering 23 European countries, plus the US and Japan. Main findings include a high degree of regulation in wage setting in most countries. Although union membership is low i  many countries, union coverage is high and almost all countries also have some form of national minimum wage. Most countries negotiate wages on several levels, the sectoral level still being the most dominant, with an increasingly important role for bargaining at the firm level. The average length of collective bargaining agreements is found to lie between one and three years. Most agreements are strongly driven by developments in prices and eleven countries have some form of indexation mechanism which affects wages. Cluster analysis identifies three country groupings of wage-setting institutions.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Europe, Etats-Unis, Japon / Europe, United States, Japan

. Minimum wages and employment :  Reconsidering the use of a time-series approach as an evaluation tool,
W-S. Lee and S. Suardi, Melbourne Institute, Melbourne, Working paper, n° 20/08, October, 33 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : The time-series approach used in the minimum wage literature essentially aims to estimate a treatment effect of increasing the minimum wage. In this paper, we employ a novel approach based on aggregate time-series data that allows us to determine if minimum wage changes have significant effects on employment. This involves the use of tests for structural breaks as a device for identifying discontinuities in the data which potentially represent treatment effects. In an application based on Australian data, the tentative conclusion is that the introduction of minimum wage legislation in Australia in 1997 and subsequent minimum wage increases appear not to have had any significant negative employment effects for teenagers.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Australia / Australie

. Minimum wages and their alternatives : A critical assessment,
A. Knabe and R. Schöb,
CESifo, Munich, CESifo working paper, n° 2494, December, 31 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : Do minimum wages reduce in-work-poverty and wage inequality? Or can alternative policies do better? We evaluate theses issues for the exemplary case of Germany that suffers from high unemployment among low-skilled workers and rising wage dispersion at the bottom of the wage distribution. We analyze the impact of three different policy options, currently discussed in Germany, on employment, wage inequality, public expenditures, and incomes of poor households: 1) a statutory minimum wage, 2) a combination of minimum wages and wage subsidies as e.g. in France and the Netherlands, and 3) pure wage subsidies to low-paid workers. We find that a minimum wage of EUR 7.50 would cost 840,000 low-paid jobs and increase the fiscal burden by about EUR 4 billion per year, while poor households’ income rises only by EUR 1.1 billion per year. With pure wage subsidies, the government can ensure more favorable employment and income effects. Combining a minimum wage with a wage subsidy turns out to be extremely costly and inferior to wage subsidies in all respects.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Allemagne / Germany

.
Le nombre d'allocataires du RMI au 30 septembre 2008, M. Hennion-Aouriri, E. Nauze-Fichet et I. Mirouse, Drees, Paris, Études et résultats, n° 673, décembre, 4 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : Au 30 septembre 2008, en France métropolitaine et dans les départements d’outre-mer (DOM), 1,13 million de foyers perçoivent le revenu minimum d’insertion (RMI) versé par les caisses d’allocations familiales (CAF). Ce nombre, en données corrigées des variations saisonnières (CVS), a diminué de 0,8 % au troisième trimestre 2008. Sur un an, de septembre 2007 à septembre 2008, la baisse est de 4,0 %. Les effectifs du RMI restent ainsi orientés à la baisse malgré la détérioration du marché du travail. En effet, la conjoncture se répercute avec un certain retard sur le nombre de personnes susceptibles d’avoir recours à ce minimum social. En outre, la remontée du nombre de demandeurs d’emploi ce trimestre s’est accompagnée d’une remontée du taux de couverture de l’indemnisation chômage. Ceci s’explique par le fait qu’après trois années de conjoncture favorable, les actifs sont plus nombreux à avoir acquis des droits à indemnisation. Par ailleurs, le nombre de titulaires de contrats aidés (contrats d’avenir et contrats insertion – revenu minimum d’activité [CI-RMA]) a diminué ce trimestre. La baisse est de 9,8 % en glissement annuel. Le bilan des évolutions des effectifs du RMI depuis mi-2006 met en avant une baisse historique. En deux ans, de la mi-2006 à la mi-2008, le nombre d’allocataires a chuté de 142 000 personnes, soit une baisse de 11 %.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. Optimal income taxation with endogenous participation and search unemployment, E. Lehmann, A. Parmentier and B. Van Der Linden, Centre d’étude des Politiques économiques de l’universite d’Evry, Evry, Document de recherche EPEE, n° 08-16, october, 40 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : This paper characterizes the optimal redistributive taxation when individuals are heterogeneous in two exogenous dimensions: their skills and their values of non-market activities. Search-matching frictions on the labor markets create unemployment. Wages, labor demand and participation are endogenous. The government only observes wage levels. Under a Maximin objective, if the elasticity of participation decreases along the distribution of skills, at the optimum, the average tax rate is increasing, marginal tax rates are positive everywhere, while wages, unemployment rates and participation rates are distorted downwards compared to their laissez-faire values. A simulation exercise confirms some of these properties under a general utilitarian objective. Taking account of the wage-cum-labor demand margin deeply changes the equity-efficiency trade-off.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. Who compares to whom ? The anatomy of income comparisons in Europe,
A. E. Clark and C. Senik, Paris-Jourdan sciences économiques, Laboratoire d'Economie appliquée, Paris, Working paper, n° 2008-65, December, 29 p., (2008).

Résumé - Summary : This paper provides unprecedented direct evidence on the intensity and direction of income comparisons. Income comparisons are considered to be important by a considerable majority of Europeans. They are associated with both lower levels of self-reported satisfaction and a greater demand for income redistribution. Colleagues are the most frequently-cited reference group, and the most innocuous one; comparisons to friends are both less widespread and much more toxic for satisfaction. This set of findings is consistent with information effects, as professional reference groups may represent a source of information about one’s future prospects rather than a simple benchmark for comparisons.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Europe

AUTRES DONNEES SOCIALES - OTHER SOCIAL ISSUES

. Rapport d'information déposé en application de l'article 145 du Règlement par la commission des affaires culturelles, familiales et sociales en conclusion des travaux de la mission sur la formation tout au long de la vie, F. Guégot, Assemblée nationale, Paris, Documents d'information, n° 1298, 226 p. (2008).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France