bulletin du cerc n° 203 du 19 avril 2010

EMPLOI - EMPLOYMENT

. Can training programs or rather wage subsidies bring the unemployed back to work ? A theoretical and empirical investigation for Germany, R. Neubaümer, Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn, IZA discussion paper, n° 4864, April, 34 p., (2010).

Résumé - Summary : Our paper investigates the relative effects of wage subsidies and further vocational training on the subsequent employment prospects of previously unemployed program participants. First, we outline a theoretical approach based on a firm’s hiring decision. For the relative effectiveness of both labor market programs the assumption concerning the formation of human capital is crucial and leads to competing hypotheses for the medium and long term. On the assumption that wage subsidies have no effect on human capital they improve individuals’ employment prospects less than training programs. Contrariwise, on the assumption that the formation of human capital on subsidized jobs equals that by formal training subsidization has the same employment effect as a training program. Second, we test the two hypotheses empirically, using a large administrative data set from Germany and statistical matching techniques. Our treatment groups consist of unemployed persons taking up subsidized employment or entering a further vocational training program, respectively, during March 2003. To exclude unemployment after program end we estimate the effect of keeping a subsidized job versus participating in training and taking up a job immediately afterwards. The results strongly support the latter of our competing hypotheses: Previously subsidized individuals and trained individuals who found a job immediately afterwards have the same employment rates. This leads to the conclusion that firms value training on a subsidized job as much as formal training programs
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Allemagne / Germany

. La mesure des « emplois vacants » : situation actuelle et perspectives, Ministère du Travail, de la Solidarité et de la Fonction publique, Paris, Rapport du groupe de travail interinstitutionnel, mars, 86 p., (2010).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. Montée du chômage des jeunes dans la crise : comment éviter un impact négatif à long terme sur toute une génération ?, S. Scarpetta, A. Sonnet et T. Manfredi, OCDE, Paris, Document de travail, n° 106, 35 p., (2010).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Pays de l'OCDE / OECD countries

. Présence des personnes d’origine étrangère dans les minima sociaux et retour à l’emploi, D. Gelot et C. Minni, Cnaf, Paris, Politiques sociales et familiales, n° 99, mars, 14 p., (2010).

Résumé : Une enquête menée par la DREES en 2006 permet, pour la première fois, d’informer sur la place, au sein du revenu minimum d’insertion (RMI), de l’allocation de solidarité spécifique (ASS) et de l’allocation de parent isolé, qu’occupent les immigrés et les descendants d’immigrés, comparativement aux Français d’origine. Elle permet également de renseigner, pour les allocataires du RMI, sur le rôle joué par l’accompagnement et sur leur devenir à la sortie de ce minimum social. Plus pauvres que les Français d’origine, les immigrés d’origine africaine sont trois fois plus présents dans ces minima que dans la population en âge de travailler. Les immigrés allocataires de l’ASS et du RMI, quelle que soit leur origine, déclarent accéder moins souvent que les Français d’origine à certains droits tels que la santé, le logement, l’alimentation ou l’habillement. À caractéristiques comparables en termes de genre, d’âge, de diplôme et d’ancienneté dans le RMI, on note peu de différences concernant l’accompagnement, l’occupation d’un emploi, la sortie du dispositif et la sortie vers l’emploi selon l’origine géographique des allocataires.

Summary : A survey conducted by the DREES in 2006 has cast light for the first time on the extent of immigrants and descendants of immigrants compared to French-born beneficiaries of revenu minimum d’insertion (RMI), allocation de solidarité spécifique (ASS) and allocation de parent isolé (ASI) benefits. The study also offered information for RMI recipients concerning the role played by follow-up and their future after ceasing to receive minimum welfare benefits. Immigrants of African origin are poorer than French-born recipients and are three times more numerous in these welfare benefits than in the working population age group. Immigrants receiving ASS and RMI benefits, irrespective of their origins, declared that they accessed certain rights less often than French-born recipients for such needs as health, housing, food or clothing assistance. On a comparable basis in terms of sex, age, qualifications and time receiving the RMI, there were few differences with regard to support, occupation in a job, withdrawal from welfare and transfer to employment by geographic origin of the recipients
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

REVENU - INCOME

. Economic well-being in Italy : the role of income insecurity and intergenerational inequality, G. Berloffa and F. Modena, Ecineq, Palma de Mallorca, Ecineq working papers, n° 2010-168, April, 31 p., (2010).

Résumé - Summary : This paper provides a measure of economic well-being for the Italian context. In the last two decades Italy experienced a sharp increase in labour market flexibility and a relative loss of command over resources of young generations with respect to older ones. We include new measures of temporary work and intergenerational inequality in the IEWB, and analyse its evolution in Italy and in Lombardy (the leading Italian region) over the 1995-2007 period. We find that well-being advanced at a slower rate than GDP, mainly because of the negative effect of a reduction in employment security and a rise in income inequality, which was more pronounced in Lombardy.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Italie / Italy

. Minimum wage and staying-on rates in education for teenagers, A. De Coulon and alii, Report prepared for the Low Pay Commission, London, January, 75 p., (2010).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Royaume-Uni / United Kingdom

. Réformer les aides sociales locales dans le nouveau contexte du revenu de solidarité active, D. Anne et Y. L’Horty, Cnaf, Paris, Politiques sociales et familiales, n° 99, mars, 18 p., (2010).

Résumé : La mise en oeuvre du revenu de solidarité active (RSA) modifie, de façon assez profonde, le paysage de l’aide sociale en France. Les offreurs locaux d’aides à caractère social, les villes, les départements, les régions, les caisses d’Allocations familiales et les associations caritatives vont pouvoir réagir à la réforme nationale en ajustant leurs prestations dans un sens susceptible de prendre des directions variées selon les localités. Ces ajustements peuvent, le cas échéant, compliquer, voire même contredire, la réalisation des objectifs fixés à la réforme du RSA. Dans ce contexte, cet article explore plusieurs scénarios d’ajustement des politiques sociales locales. Les auteurs se concentrent sur les ajustements des barèmes des aides sociales financières en négligeant leurs autres aspects (évolution des contreparties demandées aux bénéficiaires, contrôle des conditionnalités, dispositifs d’accompagnement…). Sept scénarios ont été construits pour décrire les différentes réactions possibles des offreurs d’aides sociales locales, et en déduire leurs avantages et leurs inconvénients. Sur la base des résultats des simulations, sont dessinés les contours d’une réforme locale à budget constant, ne pénalisant pas le retour à l’emploi, ne faisant pas de perdants parmi les bénéficiaires des aides sociales locales, cohérente avec l’esprit de la réforme nationale, et qui pose peu de difficultés de mise en oeuvre.

Summary : The Revenu de solidarité active (RSA) will deeply modify the French system of social transfers. Local suppliers of social transfers, cities, department, regions, Family allowance fund (Caisses d’Allocations Familiales) and charitable organizations, will possibly react to this national reform through various way of adjusting their allowance systems. These adjustment at the local level may complicate, even contradict, realization of RSA reform objectives at the national level. In order to study these reactions, the focus is on monetary aspects of social transfers, neglecting the question of counterparty for recipient, control and accompaniment. Seven scenarios has been built to describe all possible reactions coming from local suppliers of social benefits and we discuss their advantages and inconvenient. Based on simulations, the profile of a local reform with a constant budget has been drawn, no negative effect on back to work gains, no losers, consistent with the national reform and with a minimum difficulty of implementation.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

AUTRES DONNEES SOCIALES - OTHER SOCIAL ISSUES

. Combien les Français sont-ils prêts à consacrer aux dépenses de santé ? Démocratie sanitaire et consentement au financement de la santé, S-L. Gerber, Centre d'Analyse stratégique, Paris, Note de veille, n° 171, avril, 8 p., (2010).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. La durée de perception de l’allocation personnalisée d'autonomie (APA) : 4 ans en moyenne, C. Debout, Drees, Paris, Etudes et résultats, n° 724, avril, 8 p., (2010).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. Regimes of social cohesion, A. Green and alii, LLAKES, Centre for Learning and Life Chances in Knowledge Economies and Societies, London, LLAKES research paper, n° 1, March, 156 p., (2010).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Données internationales / International data

Retraite / Retirement

. Les bénéficiaires de l’assurance vieillesse des parents au foyer, M. Nicolas et F. Thibault, Cnaf, Paris, Politiques sociales et familiales, n° 99, mars, 6 p., (2010).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. Employing the capability approach to compare pensioner's well-being across UK countries, L. Pedace, M. Pisani and A. Zaidi, HM Treasury, London, Treasury economic working paper, n° 7, April, 36 p., (2010).

Résumé - Summary : The goal of this paper is to compare different measures of pensioner well-being across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Having appraised various approaches to conceptualising and measuring the well-being of pensioners, Sen’s (1992) capability approach stands out as a novel and theoretically appealing way to obtain additionalinsights into the well-being of pensioners living across the United Kingdom. Pensioners’well-being is therefore compared across these countries in terms of various attainedoutcomes and proxies for capabilities. The results highlight that wider measures of pensioners’ welfare provide a more comprehensive picture. For example, althoughpensioners in England are found to have the highest average income, their wider wellbeing is not consistently above that of their peers in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. This research suggest that studies using income as the only proxy for pensioners’ wellbeing provide a partial picture and should be complemented with non-monetary measuresfor a more comprehensive evidence base.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Royaume-Uni / United Kingdom

. Espérance de vie, durée de cotisation et âges de départ à la retraite, Conseil d'Orientation des Retraites, Paris, Documents de travail, 24 mars, (2010).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. The funding of state and local pensions : 2009-2013, A. H. Munnell, J-P. Aubry and L. Quinby, Center for Retirement Research, Chestnut Hill, Brief, n° 10, April, 18 p., (2010).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Etats-Unis / United States

. Pensions in a post-crisis world : fully-funded provision is vital, D. Bräuninger, Deutsche Bank Research, Frankfurt am Main, Current issues, February, 28 p., (2010).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Pays de l'OCDE / OECD countries

. Policy action in private occupational pensions in Japan since the economic crisis of the 1990s, J. Sakamoto, OECD, Paris, OECD working papers on insurance and private pensions, n° 41, February, 17 p., (2010).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Japon / Japan

. Retirement choices in Italy : What an option value model tells us, M. Belloni and R. Alessie, CERP, Torino, Working paper, n° 92, February, 39 p., (2010).

Résumé - Summary : Using Italian data this study estimates the option value model in order to quantify the effect of financial incentives on retirement choices. As far as we know, this is the first empirical study which estimates the conditional multiple-years (CMY) model put forward by Stock and Wise (1990). This implies that we have accounted for dynamic self-selection bias. For the subsample of females the CMY model yields plausible estimates of the preference parameters such as the marginal utility of leisure. This last parameter is typically underestimated if one does not take into account the self-selection problem. From our results it becomes clear that dynamic self-selection results in a considerable downward-bias in the estimate of the marginal utility of leisure. We also performed a simulation study to gauge the effects of a dramatic pension reform. It turns out that the underestimation of the marginal utility of leisure translates into a sizable overprediction of the impact of the reform. For males we also obtain plausible estimates. The results for males should be interpreted with caution because we are not able to fully correct for dynamic self-selection bias.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Italie / Italy

. Regards croisés sur les régimes de retraite des indépendants et des salariés, I. Bridenne, A. Di Porto et M. Glénat, Cnav, Paris, Cadr'age, n° 10, mars, 8 p., (2010).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. Les retraités et les retraites en 2008, Drees, Paris, Collection études et statistiques (81 p.), Etudes et résultats, n° 722, avril, 6 p., (2010).

Résumé - Summary : Près de 15 millions de personnes, vivant en France ou à l’étranger, sont retraitées de droit direct d’au moins un régime français en fin d’année 2008. Depuis 2006, ces retraités sont plus nombreux d’environ 500 000 personnes chaque année. La pension moyenne des retraités tous régimes confondus s’établit en 2008 à 1 122 euros mensuels (hors droits dérivés, majorations et minimum vieillesse). Elle augmente en moyenne de 2,4 % par an en euros courants depuis 2003, soit une croissance supérieure d’environ 0,6 point à l’inflation annuelle moyenne, mais cette évolution est portée essentiellement par l’effet de noria, c’est-à-dire le remplacement des retraités les plus âgés par des nouveaux retraités disposant généralement de carrières plus favorables. La retraite obligatoire par répartition continue, par ailleurs, de représenter l’essentiel des retraites en France : les divers dispositifs de retraite supplémentaire facultative ne représentent que 2 % et 5 % respectivement des montants totaux de prestations et de cotisations.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : France

. Social impact of the crisis : Demographic challenges and the pension system, European Parliament, Directorate General for Internal Policies, Strasbourg, Note, 14 p., (2010).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Europe

. The trouble with pensions : Toward an alternative public policy to support retirement, Y. Nersisyan and L. Randall Wray, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, Public policy brief, n° 109A, 4 p., (2010).

Résumé - Summary : Pension funds have taken a big hit during the current financial crisis, with losses in the trillions of dollars. In addition, both private and public pensions are experiencing significant funding shortfalls, as is the government-run Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, which insures the defined-benefit pension plans of private American companies. Yeva Nersisyan and Senior Scholar L. Randall Wray argue that the employment-based pension system is highly problematic, since the strategy for managing pension funds leads to excessive cost and risk in an effort to achieve above-average returns. The average fund manager, however, will only achieve the risk-free return. The authors therefore advocate expanding Social Security and encouraging private and public pensions to invest only in safe (risk-free) Treasury bonds—which, on average, will beat the net returns on risky assets.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Etats-Unis / United States

. Vacillations around a pension reform trajectory : time for a change ?, P. Tinios, Hellenic Observatory, London, GreeSE paper, n° 34, April, 40 p., (2010).

Résumé - Summary : Discussion of pensions in Greece displays a paradox: reform is universally acknowledged to be important, urgent and mature, yet the political class avoid and postpone all discussion. This results in a syncopated reform path. A historical overview indicates that reforms are best understood as interrupted and unsuccessful attempts to complete the original blueprint for the pension system which was formulated in the 1930s. These define a reform trajectory around which there exist centrifugal forces pulling away (cross-subsidies), and homeostatic mechanisms bringing back on track (public finance). Thus, the original 1930s design is implicitly accepted as a maximal aim of reform, while the question of its appropriateness is never raised. This analysis explains reform failures by problems in the content and preparation of reforms, rather than on the strength of opposition (which, in any case, was highly predictable). A fresh start, provided there is adequate preparation, is a possible way out of the impasse.
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Grèce / Greece

. What are the main parties' policies on pensions, C. Curry, Pensions Policy Institute, London, PPI briefing note, n° 55, April, 4 p., (2010).
Zone géographique / Geographical area : Royaume-Uni / United Kingdom

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