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Minimum wage effects in the longer run
D. Neumark and O. Nizalova,
Institute
for the Study of Labor, Bonn, IZA discussion paper, n° 1428, December,
46 p., (2004).
Résumé - Summary
Exposure to minimum wages at young ages may lead
to longer-run effects. Among the possible adverse longer-run effects are
decreased labor market experience and accumulation of tenure, lower current
labor supply because of lower wages, and diminished training and skill
acquisition. Beneficial longer-run effects could arise if minimum wages increase
skill acquisition, or if short-term wage increases are long-lasting. We estimate
the longer-run effects of minimum wages by using information on the minimum wage
history that workers have faced since potentially entering the labor market. The
evidence indicates that even as individuals reach their late 20’s, they earn
less and perhaps work less the longer they were exposed to a higher minimum wage,
especially as a teenager. The adverse longer-run effects of facing high minimum
wages as a teenager are stronger for blacks. From a policy perspective, these
longer-run effects of minimum wages are likely more significant than the
contemporaneous effects of minimum wages on youths that are the focus of most
research and policy debate.